The Buildup To War In Ukraine - Monday, February 21, 2022
February 21, 2023
Around noon of Monday, February 21 2022, the Donetsk News Agency reported of unprecedented artillery attacks on the Donbas republics:
The tensions along the line of contact in Donbass heightened over the last 24 hours, both DPR and LPR Missions to the JCCC report.In the DPR, 730 explosions of Ukrainian projectiles were recorded, the enemy is using large caliber mortars and artillery cannons. A similar situation is obsereved in the LPR, where 674 explosions of Ukrainian shells were reported over 24 hours.
The Republics have suffered military and civilian casualties.
Key infrastructure objects have sustained damage. More than 1,000 customers are without power, a major ventilator was off in the Skochinskogo coal mine, prompting staff evacuation.
At around 18:50 local time the DNA reported that the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic had asked the president of Russia Vladimir Putin to recognize the republics as independent states:
"On behalf of our people we ask you to recognize the DPR as an independent, democratic, social state under the rule of law," the DPR Head Denis Pushilin said."I ask you to recognise the sovereignty and independence of the Lugansk People's Republic", the LPR Head Leonid Pasechnik said.
They both asked to consider the possibility of signing an agreement of friendship and cooperation between Russia and the LPR, including the cooperation in the sphere of defence.
Putin has a degree in law and is generally unwilling to bend or break it. The request by the Donbas republics are part of a process that will make a Russian intervention on their side legally consistent with the Charter of the United Nations and international law.
The Russian president held a Security Council meeting. It opened with his summary of previous events that had led to the situation:
A peace plan was drafted during the negotiating process called the Minsk Package of Measures because, as you recall, we met in the city of Minsk. But subsequent developments show that the Kiev authorities are not planning to implement it, and they have publicly said so many times at the top state level and at the level of Foreign Minister and Security Council Secretary. Overall, everyone understands that they are not planning to do anything with regard to this Minsk Package of Measures.Nevertheless, Russia has exerted efforts and still continues to make efforts to resolve all the complicated aspects and tragic developments by peaceful means, but we have what we have.
Our goal, the goal of today’s meeting is to listen to our colleagues and to outline future steps in this direction, considering the appeals by the leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic on recognising their sovereignty, as well as a resolution by the State Duma of the Russian Federation on the same subject. The latter document urges the President to recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic.
After the Security Council meeting Putin had a phone call with the German chancellor Scholz and the French president Macron to inform them of the results:
Vladimir Putin informed the leaders of the outcomes of the expanded meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which reviewed the current situation around Donbass in the context of the State Duma’s resolution on recognising the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Today the leaders of the DPR and the LPR also requested the recognition of their sovereignty in connection with the military aggression of the Ukrainian authorities and massive shelling of the territory of Donbass, and the resulting civilian suffering.In view of this, the President of Russia said he intended to sign a corresponding executive order soon.
The President of France and the Federal Chancellor of Germany expressed disappointment over the developments, while also indicating readiness to continue contacts.
At around 22:30 local time Putin held an address to the nation which was televised on public TV. It notices that large parts of today's east and south Ukraine as well as Crimea were previously parts of Russia that had been attached to Ukraine by Lenin (1922) and Khrushchev (1954). Additionally Stalin had attached Polish areas that to Ukraine after the Second World War.
He then review the plundering of Ukraine's richness after its independence, the rise of its 'nationalists' and the terror campaign they unleashed after the U.S. financed Maidan coup.
He noticed the build up of the Ukraine army, trained and armed by a continuous stream of NATO forces. Meanwhile NATO created new infrastructure that threatened Russia while the U.S. withdrew from several Arms Control treaties:
Today, one glance at the map is enough to see to what extent Western countries have kept their promise to refrain from NATO’s eastward expansion. They just cheated. We have seen five waves of NATO expansion, one after another – Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary were admitted in 1999; Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2004; Albania and Croatia in 2009; Montenegro in 2017; and North Macedonia in 2020.As a result, the Alliance, its military infrastructure has reached Russia’s borders. This is one of the key causes of the European security crisis; it has had the most negative impact on the entire system of international relations and led to the loss of mutual trust.
He describes the situation in Donbas under steady shelling and concludes:
Russia has done everything to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity. All these years, it has persistently and patiently pushed for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2202 of February 17, 2015, which consolidated the Minsk Package of Measures of February 12, 2015, to settle the situation in Donbass.Everything was in vain. Presidents and Rada deputies come and go, but deep down the aggressive and nationalistic regime that seized power in Kiev remains unchanged. It is entirely a product of the 2014 coup, and those who then embarked on the path of violence, bloodshed and lawlessness did not recognise then and do not recognise now any solution to the Donbass issue other than a military one.
In this regard, I consider it necessary to take a long overdue decision and to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.
I would like to ask the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to support this decision and then ratify the Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance with both republics. These two documents will be prepared and signed shortly.
After the speech Putin signed documents recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics:
The President of Russia signed the Executive Order On the Recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Executive Order On the Recognition of the Lugansk People’s Republic.Vladimir Putin and Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Donetsk People’s Republic.
The President of Russia and Head of the LPR Leonid Pasechnik signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Lugansk People’s Republic.
The treaties of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance included mutual defense agreements.
While the 'West' calls Russia's action in Ukraine 'unprovoked' the long list of NATO actions that Putin included in his speech prove that Russia's action was certainly provoked.
The 'West' also likes to call the Russian intervention in Ukraine 'illegal'. However, Russia recognized the two republics just like the 'West' recognized Bosnia and a part of sovereign Serbia as an independent Kosovo. Unlike in the Donbas republics there had never been a referendum in Kosovo that supported such a step. But the 'West' had even found an international court that (barely) legalized the Kosovo case. There can thus be no argument that the steps Russia took in recognizing the republics were in any way illegal.
The common self-defense treaties Russia and the republics signed are not fully consistent with Article 51 of the UN Charter as those republics were not (yet) UN members. But they closely followed that articles spirit:
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.
The case of Russian support for the Donbas republics was thereby made as legal as they possibly could be made.
The OSCE Special Observer Mission at the ceasefire line in southeast-Ukraine reported of Monday, February 21 2022.
It was the worst day ever.
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 703 ceasefire violations, including 332 explosions. In the previous 24 hours, it recorded 579 ceasefire violations in the region.In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 1,224 ceasefire violations, including 1,149 explosions. In the previous 24 hours, it recorded 333 ceasefire violations in the region.
After a high number of ceasefire violations and explosions on Saturday, February 19 2022, the following Sunday had seen a reduction of incidents. Monday however proved that this was not a trend. While the numbers of ceasefire violations were 10% less than on the previous Saturday the number of observed explosion increased by20% over Saturday.
The map shows ceasefire violations in yellow, orange to red colors. By far the most now appear on the side of the Donbas republics. The source of most of the ceasefire violations, like noise of shooting or explosions recorded by cameras, drones or heard by the observers, is listed as 'undetermined'.
The map shows explosions, as small black dots, on both sides of the ceasefire line. While only a part of the hundreds of explosions were located and marked on the map a count of the black dots shows that a great majority of those happened on the side of the Donbas republics. I count 92 impacts marked on the Donbas side and only 16 on the government controlled side of the ceasefire line.
This was no longer an artillery duel or exchange of harassment. From a military standpoint this now clearly looked like artillery preparations for an attack along roads that could then be used as future lines of attack for a mechanized force.
Posted by b on February 21, 2023 at 15:55 UTC | Permalink